Spatial Dynamics and Convergence of Multidimensional Poverty in Mozambique

This paper investigates the spatial dynamics and convergence of multidimensional poverty across 107 districts in northern and central Mozambique between 2007 and 2017. Using census microdata and the Alkire-Foster method, we construct three indicators – headcount ratio (H), intensity of deprivation (A), and the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) – to assess the evolution of poverty across space and time. The analysis combines exploratory spatial data techniques and spatial econometric models (SLX, SLM, SDM) to test for spatial autocorrelation, absolute and conditional convergence, and the role of demographic and socioeconomic drivers in poverty propagation. Results reveal robust evidence of spatial dependence and convergence in all three indicators. While overall poverty incidence declined, intensity increased among the most deprived, particularly in rural districts. Spatial spillovers are present in both outcome variables and structural covariates, especially illiteracy, population density, and the masculinity index. These findings underscore the need for territorially integrated policy responses, as poverty reduction in one district can generate positive externalities in neighboring areas. The study highlights the relevance of spatially coordinated strategies for addressing persistent territorial inequalities and advancing multidimensional poverty reduction in structurally vulnerable regions.