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Reforma Tributária no Brasil: Impactos Regionais da PEC 45/2019

Author

Listed:
  • Haddad, Eduardo A.

    (Professor Titular do Departamento de Economia da FEAUSP e Senior Fellow do Policy Center for the New South)

  • Araújo, Inácio F.

    (Pesquisador Sênior do Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da USP (NEREUS) e Visiting Scholar na Universidade de Cornell)

  • Sacco, João Gabriel

    (Pesquisador Júnior do Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da USP (NEREUS))

Abstract

Esta nota técnica apresenta resultados de exercícios de simulação com um modelo inter-regional de equilíbrio geral computável para avaliação ex-ante dos impactos regionais da reforma tributária. A discussão considera os novos parâmetros tributários contidos na PEC 45/2019. Os resultados sugerem um trade-off entre eficiência e desigualdade regional. Se, por um lado, haveria ganhos potencias de crescimento do PIB capitaneados pelo aumento da eficiência alocativa dos recursos, por outro lado a reforma atuaria de forma a concentrar a produção e acentuar sua desigualdade ao longo do território nacional. Finalmente, em termos de arrecadação tributária do IBS, na ausência de um fundo compensatório, Amazonas, Bahia, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso e Goiás seriam os estados que tenderiam a perder arrecadação com a reforma.

Suggested Citation

  • Haddad, Eduardo A. & Araújo, Inácio F. & Sacco, João Gabriel, 2023. "Reforma Tributária no Brasil: Impactos Regionais da PEC 45/2019," TD NEREUS 8-2023, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:2023_008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reforma Tributária; Estrutura Tributária; Tributação; Impostos; Impactos Regionais; Modelo Inter-regional de Equilíbrio Geral Computável; PEC 45/2019; Brasil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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