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Building Weaknesses and Revealing Structural Constraints: Systemic Characterization of Brazilian Regional Resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Marcos Arcanjo

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil)

  • Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil)

  • Vinicius Vale

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of Paraná, Brazil)

  • Douglas Silveira

    (Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil)

Abstract

To understand how different regions withstand increasingly frequent exogenous shocks, we analyze regional resilience in Brazil, motivated by persistent structural inequalities and frequent exposure to such shocks. Using interregional input-output matrices for 2011 and 2019, we adopt an ex ante approach, simulating scenarios that stress the productive structure to evaluate regional responses. These results are integrated with network analysis and machine learning techniques to classify degrees of regional resilience. Resilience is highest in the South and Southeast, particularly São Paulo, and lowest in the North and Northeast. This pattern is associated with the concentration of activities with limited diffusion to less resilient regions, which exhibit growth and specialization in primary activities, along with dependence on services weakly integrated into production chains. Overall, resilience remains largely stable, highlighting structural barriers that hinder transformation and are not easily overcome spontaneously over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Marcos Arcanjo & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Vinicius Vale & Douglas Silveira, 2025. "Building Weaknesses and Revealing Structural Constraints: Systemic Characterization of Brazilian Regional Resilience," TD NEREUS 09-2025, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:nereus:021497
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    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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