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Commodity Shocks, Factor Intensity and Conflicts in Africa


  • Gantier Mita, Marcelo

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)


Natural resources are often related to conflicts. The Dal Bó & Dal Bó (2011) theory states that income shocks affect capital- and labor-intensive sectors differently. Using sub-national cells covering the African continent for 1997-2010, I find that conflicts react differently to positive commodity price shocks depending on their factor intensity. The results show that a positive shock in the capital-intensive mining sector increases conflict likelihood, whereas a positive shock in the labor-intensive agricultural sector reduces it. These impacts are higher for sub-Saharan Africa. When testing heterogeneous effects for the degree of commodity appropriability, historical African-specific factors, and quality of institutions, I find that easily taxed crops behave differently to an increase in international crop prices. In the same vein, I find that neither historical African-specific factors nor the quality of institutions seem to induce differential responses in conflicts to commodity price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Gantier Mita, Marcelo, 2020. "Commodity Shocks, Factor Intensity and Conflicts in Africa," Documentos de trabajo 6/2020, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2020_006

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    Recursos Naturales; Conflictos; Commodity Shocks; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas; IISEC.;
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