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Sensibilidad del Sector Fiscal a los Ciclos Económicos en Bolivia 1990-2012

Author

Listed:
  • Aliaga Lordemann, Javier

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Garrón Vedia, Ignacio

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

El presente documento calcula el Balance Estructural para Bolivia para el periodo 1990-2012. Se estimaron las elasticidades de corto y largo plazo de las partidas de ingresos del Sector Público No financiero (SPNF) que mostraron una relación de largo plazo con la actividad económica: primero, se siguió el método propuesto por Sobel y Holcombe (1996), por el cual se estiman las elasticidades a largo plazo por medio de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios dinámicos y técnicas utilizadas por Stock y Watson, 1993; y posteriormente, se estimaron las elasticidades de corto plazo (Engel y Granger, 1987). El objetivo último del trabajo es mostrar la relación entre los ciclos económicos y los ingresos del SPNF, y evaluar el comportamiento de la política fiscal por medio del Balance Estructural. Los resultados muestran que la política fiscal fue altamente pro-cíclica en un periodo de veinte y dos años; a pesar que, durante el último quinquenio existiría una sintonía más fina de la política fiscal con los ciclos económicos. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC

Suggested Citation

  • Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Garrón Vedia, Ignacio, 2013. "Sensibilidad del Sector Fiscal a los Ciclos Económicos en Bolivia 1990-2012," Documentos de trabajo 7/2013, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2013_007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Balance; Cycles; Times series; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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