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Socioeconomic and Housing Influences on Electric Heat Pump Adoption in the U.S

Author

Listed:
  • Rohan Best

    (rohan.best@mq.edu.au)

  • Reinhard Madlener

    (1- Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), School of Business and Economics / E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustrasse 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany; 2- Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Sentralbygg 1, Gløshaugen, 7491 Trondheim, Norway. November 2023)

Abstract

We assess influences on electric heat pump adoption with household data from the American Housing Survey covering 2017-2023, with implications for sustainable and affordable energy transitions. Substitutability for heating is important, motivating our comparative and multinomial logit analysis. A key attribute of our analysis is including prior energy contexts at the household level, such as the prior main heating type and whether the household previously used natural gas for any purpose. We find that existing housing contexts are crucial, with lower likelihood of electric heat pump adoption for households with warm air furnaces as their prior primary heat source, those using natural gas for any purpose, apartments, and old dwellings. Economic influences are less obvious for electric heat pumps compared to some other technologies. However, we conduct interaction analysis to show that income likely has an influence on electric heat pump adoption. Policymakers should therefore still consider equity across economic distributions. The more complicated context of heat pump adoption, with existing substitutes already being widely used, implies that policies need to be flexible to support households when they are ready to make heating investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohan Best & Reinhard Madlener, 2025. "Socioeconomic and Housing Influences on Electric Heat Pump Adoption in the U.S," FCN Working Papers No. 11/2025, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:021758
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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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