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Wholesale Price Prediction: The Role of Information and Transparency

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Listed:
  • David P. Brown

    (University of Alberta)

  • Andrew Eckert

    (University of Alberta)

  • Douglas Silveira

    (Federal University of Juiz de Fora)

Abstract

The extent of real-time information disclosure in electricity markets has been a longstanding debate. Regulators have the difficult task of striking a careful balance between transparency to improve market outcomes under uncertainty while limiting the potential for coordinated action. We consider the case of Alberta’s electricity market where, until 2017, firms observed anonymized price-quantity offers in the wholesale market in near-real-time. We empirically evaluate the role that this information played in improving firms’ abilities to forecast wholesale prices, a key argument raised by stakeholders for this information to be published. While we find that this information improved firms’ abilities to forecast wholesale prices under certain market conditions, we present evidence to suggest that the economic significance of this improvement is minimal. We point to other types of near-real-time information that could help improve expectations of future market outcomes and provide suggestions on information disclosure policies that aim to strike a balance on motivating efficient outcomes, while reducing the risk of coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert & Douglas Silveira, 2025. "Wholesale Price Prediction: The Role of Information and Transparency," Working Papers 2025-08, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:021762
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    File URL: https://sites.ualberta.ca/~econwps/2025/wp2025-08.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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