Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia: Evidence from Modeling Scenarios

Unless developing Asia decarbonizes its development, global warming is unlikely to stay below the internationally agreed limit of 2°C above preindustrial levels. Integrated assessment modeling offers insights into how a low carbon transition can be achieved. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious model intercomparison effort that compiled thousands of model-scenario combinations to consider low carbon development pathways. This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider decarbonization pathways for developing Asia. Overall, a comparison of the major models finds strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector required to achieve Paris Agreement goals. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal—a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia—and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation efforts are efficient, as assumed in the models.