Will Increased Timber Harvesting on Federal Lands Reduce Growing Wildfire Hazards?

On March 1, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order (EO 14225) directing the Secretaries of Agriculture and the Interior to develop plans to increase timber production on federal lands. The order was motivated by two stated priorities: expanding the timber supply and addressing rising wildfire risks. The US Forest Service has responded with a goal of increasing timber offered for sale by 25 percent over the next four to five years. This report puts the Trump administration’s actions into context by reviewing the history of harvest from federal lands and evaluating current forest inventories and treatment needs. It asks: What would be the effect on wildfire risk if federal land management agencies increased harvests by 25 percent? Opportunities for harvests that successfully mitigate risk may be limited by the absence of active timber markets, the availability of a qualified workforce, and the economics of fuel removals. While selective harvesting can play a role in hazard reduction, effects on risk depend on how and where harvests are implemented. Market realities and declining federal capacity to implement nuanced, site-specific forest treatments present real constraints. Moreover, the national significance of expanded federal harvests is limited; federal lands have long accounted for a small share of total US timber production, and most timber now comes from private lands, particularly in the South. Whether agencies can achieve both increased timber supply and meaningful reductions in wildfire risk will depend on how strongly the latter goal is prioritized in the design of timber sales.