IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential and natural output


  • Giorgio Primiceri

    (Northwestern University)

  • Alejandro Justiniano

    (Chicago Fed)


We estimate a DSGE model with imperfectly competitive products and labor markets, and sticky prices and wages. We use the model to back out two counterfactual objects: potential output, i.e. the level of output that would prevail under perfect competition, and natural output, i.e. the level of output that would prevail with flexible prices and wages. We find that potential output is smooth, resulting in an output gap that closely resembles traditional measures of detrended output. Meanwhile natural output is extremely volatile, due to the very high variability of wage markup shocks. These disturbances, however, are very similar to measurement errors because they only explain price and wage inflation at very high frequencies. Under this alternative interpretation, potential and natural output move one-to-one.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2009. "Potential and natural output," 2009 Meeting Papers 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:25

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
    2. Binning, Andrew & Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Maih, Junior, 2019. "Is monetary policy always effective? Incomplete interest rate pass-through in a DSGE model," Working Paper 2019/22, Norges Bank.
    3. Tóth, Máté, 2021. "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series 2523, European Central Bank.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed009:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.