IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rdg/icmadp/icma-dp2007-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model-Based Stress Tests: Linking Stress Tests to VaR for Market Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Alexander

    () (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Elizabeth Sheedy

    (Macquarie Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney)

Abstract

Under the new capital accord stress tests are to be included in market risk regulatory capital calculations. This development necessitates a coherent and objective framework for stress testing portfolios exposed to market risk. Following recent criticism of stress testing methods our tests are conducted in the context of risk models, building on the VaR literature. First, to identify the most suitable risk models for stress testing, we apply an extensive back testing procedure that focuses on extreme market movements. We consider eight possible risk models including both conditional and unconditional models and four possible return distributions (normal, Student’s t, empirical and normal mixture) applied to three heavily traded currency pairs using a sample of daily data spanning more than 20 years. Finding that risk models accommodating both volatility clustering and heavy tails are the most accurate predictors of extreme returns, we develop a corresponding model-based stress testing methodology. Our results are compared with traditional stress tests and we assess the implications for capital adequacy. On the basis of our results we conclude that the new recommendations for market risk regulatory capital calculation will have little impact on current levels of foreign exchange regulatory capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Alexander & Elizabeth Sheedy, 2007. "Model-Based Stress Tests: Linking Stress Tests to VaR for Market Risk," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2007-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2007-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icmacentre.ac.uk/files/pdf/dps/dp2007_02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Allan Brace & Mark Lauer & Milo Rado, 2008. "A Stylised Model for Extreme Shocks: Four Moments of the Apocalypse," Research Paper Series 224, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-risk models; stress testing; market risk; exhange rates; GARCH;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2007-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Pearson). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.