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Permanent School Closures and Crime: Evidence from Scotland

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Borbely

    (Department of Economics, Queen’s University Belfast,)

  • Markus Gehrsitz

    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow)

  • Stuart McIntyre

    (Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn)

  • Gennaro Rossi

    (Department of Economics, University of Reading)

Abstract

School closures occur regularly, driven by declining school performance, depopulation, school buildings not meeting safety regulations, and a range of other factors. This has given rise to a large literature examining the effect of school closures on educational outcomes, but only a limited literature on the effect of these closures on local crime rates. In this paper we study the effects of permanent school closures on crime. We leverage the closure of over 200 schools in Scotland between the school years 2006/07 and 2018/19, and employ a staggered difference-in-differences design. Our results show that neighbourhoods affected by school closures experience a reduction in crime of about 10% of a standard deviation, relative to areas where schools remained open. This effect is mainly driven by a reduction in vandalism and property crimes. We provide evidence on several mechanisms explaining the negative crime effect, such as changes in neighbourhood composition and displacement of crime-prone youth.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Borbely & Markus Gehrsitz & Stuart McIntyre & Gennaro Rossi, 2025. "Permanent School Closures and Crime: Evidence from Scotland," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2025-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2025-06
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    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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