A Truckometer for South Africa

We produce automated daily and monthly indicators based on South African National Roads Agency traffic flow data from almost 9000 monitoring sites. Traffic volume data is available almost immediately, making such data useful for real-time assessment of economic activity. During the Covid-19 crisis, traffic flows declined dramatically, with trucking flows falling over 50 percent and light passenger flows down almost 80 percent during the initial lockdown. Although traffic flows returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2020, the introduction of the adjusted level three lockdown saw renewed weakness in traffic flows. We construct an index of transport activity as a coincident indicator of economic activity, and argue that it provides a useful signal of current economic activity. We argue that the recent level of trucking flows has been consistent with the January MPC GDP forecast for 2020Q4, but suggest some downside to the 2021Q1 nowcast.