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Nowcasting GDP using data revisions in an emerging economy

Author

Listed:
  • Winkelried, Diego

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Jason Cruz

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Javier Torres

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the revision process of monthly GDP growth in Peru using a newly constructed real-time dataset. A unified empirical framework is developed to test rationality by jointly examining serial and vintage correlations in revisions. The results reveal systematic and predictable revision patterns, primarily driven by benchmarking procedures followed by the statistical agency. Motivated by these findings, a simple forecast-adjustment model is proposed that improves early assessments of economic activity by anticipating subsequent revisions. The evidence illustrates how revision dynamics in an emerging economy can be exploited to enhance nowcasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelried, Diego & Jason Cruz & Javier Torres, 2026. "Nowcasting GDP using data revisions in an emerging economy," Working Papers 2026-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:dt-2026-003
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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