IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qut/auncer/2011_7.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Volatility timing and portfolio selection: How best to forecast volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Adam E Clements

    () (QUT)

  • Annastiina Silvennoinen

    () (QUT)

Abstract

Within the context of volatility timing and portfolio selection this paper considers how best to estimate a volatility model. Two issues are dealt with, namely the frequency of data used to construct volatility estimates, and the loss function used to estimate the parameters of a volatility model. We find support for the use of intraday data for estimating volatility which is consistent with earlier research. We also find that the choice of loss function is important and show that a simple mean squared error loss, overall provides the best forecasts of volatility upon which to form optimal portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam E Clements & Annastiina Silvennoinen, 2011. "Volatility timing and portfolio selection: How best to forecast volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 76, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2011_7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo76.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 163-185.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle," Working Paper Series 1202, European Central Bank.
    4. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    5. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-659, May.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445.
    7. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2007. "Business cycles with staggered prices and international trade in intermediate inputs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1271-1289.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    9. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tervala, Juha, 2010. "Public infrastructures, public consumption, and welfare in a new-open-economy-macro model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 827-837, September.
    10. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 281-313.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    12. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    13. Christian Merkl & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2011. "Extensive versus intensive margin in Germany and the United States: any differences?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 805-808.
    14. Bluedorn, John C. & Bowdler, Christopher, 2011. "The open economy consequences of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 309-336, March.
    15. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2011. "Beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour? The welfare effects of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2034-2040, July.
    16. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
    17. Juha Tervala, 2010. "The International Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Dollar Pricing Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 629-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; volatility timing; utility; portfolio allocation; realized volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2011_7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (School of Economics and Finance). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ncerrau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.