IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is The Transition Over?


  • Oleh Havrylyshyn

    () (University of Toronto)


While many observers thought it was premature for Czech Prime Minister Klaus to suggest in 1995 the transition was over except for fine-tuning , as we approach the 20th year after the fall of the Berlin Wall on Nov. 9, 1989,-and the 18th after the dissolution of the Soviet Union at Byelovezha- it is surely relevant to ask the question again. The first new contribution of this paper is to show that ,for all practical purposes, the post-communist transition is over in eight or nine early reformers of Central Europe and the Baltics; but it is not over for other transition countries –though many are close, and only a few very far behind. The second and perhaps more important novelty of this paper is that it goes beyond the qualitative expert judgments in earlier studies addressing this question. With one or two exceptions, earlier studies did not start with an explicit analytical definition of transition and its end-point, and evidence provided was selective often mixing partial quantitative measures with qualitative judgments-albeit well reasoned ones. This paper proposes an analytical definition of transition and its end-point , as well as ways this can be measured quantitatively without undertaking impossibly massive econometric exercises .

Suggested Citation

  • Oleh Havrylyshyn, 2009. "Is The Transition Over?," Working Papers 1209, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1209

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: First version 2009
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
    2. Muthoo,Abhinay, 1999. "Bargaining Theory with Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521576475, March.
    3. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 379-414, June.
    4. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1991. "The Technology of Conflict as an Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 130-134, May.
    5. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    6. Hart, Oliver, 1995. "Firms, Contracts, and Financial Structure," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288817.
    7. George L. Priest & Benjamin Klein, 1984. "The Selection of Disputes for Litigation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-56, January.
    8. Dan Usher, 2012. "Bargaining and voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 739-755, June.
    9. Garfinkel, Michelle R, 1990. "Arming as a Strategic Investment in a Cooperative Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 50-68, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. László Szerb & William Trumbull, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and transition in the European transition countries," ERSA conference papers ersa15p669, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item


    transition; efficient allocation; share of consumption; share of industry; direction of trade; trade openness; comparative advantage;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Babcock). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.