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Has the Rate of Job Loss Increased in the Nineties?

Author

Listed:
  • Henry S. Farber

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

I examine changes in the incidence of job loss between 1981 and 1995 using data from the Displaced Workers Surveys (DWS) from 1984-1996. The rate of job loss followed a cyclical pattern between 1981 and 1991, starting at a high level in the slack labor market of the early 1980's, falling during the economic expansion of the middle and late 1980s, and rising during the weak labor market at the end of the 1980's and early 1990's. A puzzle is that the overall rate of job loss has increased in the 1990's despite the sustained expansion. I document these facts and address the possibility that the elevated rates of job loss in the 1990's are a statistical artifact resulting from changes in the wording of key questions in the DWS in 1994 and 1996 exacerbating a problem of misclassification of some workers as displaced. Using additional data from a debriefing of respondents to the the February 1996 DWS to adjust rates of job loss to estimate a consistent time series of job loss rates, I find 1) that the overall rate of job loss has not declined in the 1993-95 time period, despite the strong labor market and 2) the overall rate of job loss in the 1993-95 period may be as high as it was during the slack labor market of 1989-91 and almost as high as it was during the very slack labor market of 1981-83.

Suggested Citation

  • Henry S. Farber, 1998. "Has the Rate of Job Loss Increased in the Nineties?," Working Papers 773, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:indrel:394
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Henry S. Farber, 2001. "Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1999," Working Papers 832, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1041, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    3. Harry C. Katz, 2001. "Recent developments in U.S. collective bargaining and employment practices," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 7(3), pages 441-450, August.
    4. Givord, Pauline & Maurin, Eric, 2004. "Changes in job security and their causes: An empirical analysis for France, 1982-2002," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 595-615, June.
    5. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2439-2483 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Audra Bowlus & Lars Vilhuber, 2001. "Displaced Workers, Early Leavers, and Re-employment Wages," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20015, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    7. repec:pri:cepsud:171farber is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg & Pieter A. Gautier & A. Gijsbert C. van Lomwel & Jan C. van Ours & Christopher J. Ruhm, 1998. "Displaced Workers in the United States and the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-084/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Susan N. Houseman & Anne E. Polivka, 1999. "The Implications of Flexible Staffing Arrangements for Job Stability," Upjohn Working Papers 99-56, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    10. Henry S. Farber, 2001. "Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1999," Working Papers 832, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    11. Farber, Henry S, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 5696, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1055, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    13. Henry S. Farber, 2007. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1041, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    14. Henry S. Farber, 2010. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 223-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Vanessa V Tinsley, 2003. "Firms and Layoffs: The Impact of Unionization on Involuntary Job Loss," Working Papers 03-09, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Retirement Equity Lab, 2019. "Older Workers Will Be More Vulnerable in the Next Recession," SCEPA publication series. 2019-03, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    17. Henry S. Farber, 2001. "Job Loss in the United States, 1981-1999," Working Papers 2001-4, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    18. Henry S. Farber, 2008. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," Working Papers 1055, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    19. repec:pri:indrel:dsp01kw52j8087 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historial Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," Working Papers 1309, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    21. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," NBER Working Papers 17040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    displacement; job loss;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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