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Дефицит Бюджета И Структурный Профицит Ликвидности Как Ключевые Факторы Развития Финансового Сектора России В 2018-2020 Годах
[The financial sector of the Russian economy in 2018-2020: the budget deficit and liquidity surplus as key factors of development]

Author

Listed:
  • Andreyev, Mikhail

Abstract

In our opinion, the key problems that will determine the parameters of the financial sector in the coming years are the budget deficit and growth of the monetary base. Growth of the monetary base is a direct consequence of the budget deficit. The government can withdraw liquidity through the sale of foreign currency by the Bank of Russia, through the borrowing in the domestic money market by the Ministry of Finance or through the spending of the Russian National Wealth Fund with the simultaneous sale of these funds in the foreign exchange market. According to scenarios concerned, the development of the financial sector will depend on how the government will restrain the growth of the monetary base and how fast the government will reduce the budget deficit. We present a forecast for the Russian financial sector for 2018-2020. The forecast includes quarter series for the sector of commercial banks, the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance. We used the financial balances methodology. The main external variables of the forecast were the macroeconomic variables of socio-economic development forecast, published by the Ministry of Economic Development, as well as the budget deficit parameters. In this regard, our forecast gives an answer to the question “under what parameters of financial policy can the socio-economic forecast be realized?”

Suggested Citation

  • Andreyev, Mikhail, 2018. "Дефицит Бюджета И Структурный Профицит Ликвидности Как Ключевые Факторы Развития Финансового Сектора России В 2018-2020 Годах
    [The financial sector of the Russian economy in 2018-2020: the budget d
    ," MPRA Paper 86666, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 May 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86666
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial sector; forecast; financial balance; cash flows; liquidity surplus; budget deficit; demand for money; liquidity absorption;

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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