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Prospectiva estratégica aplicada a la hacienda pública: Un ejercicio para la gestión de sus activos y pasivos al año 2030
[Strategic foresight applied to the public finances: An exercise for the management of its assets and liabilities to the year 2030]


  • Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo


This paper shows a methodological application of prospective strategic planning as a tool to improve future decision making within the state. To do this, the method of scenarios and pro-spective strategy applied to an exercise of improving the management of the financial equity of the public treasury of a small, open and partly dollarized economy such as the Peruvian one is used. In the exercise, five possible future scenarios were designed from which an aspirational scenario was constructed, based on current results and lessons from the past, in order to respond to what could happen (risks and opportunities) and the strategic actions that should be implemented to achieve the objectives of such scenario. The document recognizes the different historical importance given to the prospective as a tool of strategic anticipation within the states of developed countries, which unfortunately has not been given in most Latin American countries. Therefore, it is hoped that document will contribute to spread the viability of its application in government entities of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2016. "Prospectiva estratégica aplicada a la hacienda pública: Un ejercicio para la gestión de sus activos y pasivos al año 2030 [Strategic foresight applied to the public finances: An exercise for the ma," MPRA Paper 80862, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Aug 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80862

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    public treasury; public debt; strategic planning; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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