IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Study on Economic Carrying Capacity of Industries Transfer from the Coastal areas to the Central region in China based on Employment Change Forecast

  • Xiao, Yan-Fei
  • Zhao, Jia-Hua
  • Liao, Shuang-Hong

Abstract: Nowadays, industry transfer from the coastal areas to the central region and the west areas has become an essential measure for our national adjusting of industrial layout. Because the central region has a superior location advantage of undertaking east and opening west, it becomes key areas for undertaking industries.Therefore, whether the economic carrying capacity of the central region can adapt to this large-scale industrial transfer will be the key to seize the opportunity. According to the experience of international industrial transfer, large-scale industrial transfer is bound to bring about inevitably rapid increase in employment, so the article tries to use the three industrial employment data of the three central region provinces (Anhui, Jiangxi and Hunan) and the three coastal provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang) from 1978 to 2010, and then constructs the ARIMA model to forecast the employment of three industries from 2011 to 2015. Through comparatively analyzing prediction of employment changes of the central and the coastal provinces in the next few years, it will resolve some problems such as the economic carrying capacity of the central region undertaking the coastal industrial transfer, and three conclusions have been pointed out: 1) taking the coastal economic carrying capacity as a benchmark, the economic carrying capacity of the central region has not been saturated; 2)viewing the prediction of employment changes of the coastal and central region, the coastal industrial transfer has not formed in scale trend in the next few years; 3)from the terms of the changes of the future growth of the three industries, the undeveloped secondary industry is the bottleneck factor in restricting the improvement of economic carrying capacity for undertaking the coastal industrial transfer, and the low proportion of the third industry in the coastal areas is the viscosity factor in restricting the transfer of industries to the central region.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43429/1/MPRA_paper_43429.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43429.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision: 2012
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43429
Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.