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How cities develop: Affinity Factor Model for forecasting city development and dispersion


  • Deodhar, Rahul Prakash


This paper discusses the principles that determine firstly how cities evolve over seven phases in what I call the Affinity Factor model. Secondly, we see how Affinity Factor model may help understand how development spreads or distributes within the city. We observe how these principles impact selection of office location and how we can predict the future of developing business districts. We try to understand how house prices get influenced. Finally, based on the principles discussed, we try to work out a possible township model.

Suggested Citation

  • Deodhar, Rahul Prakash, 2009. "How cities develop: Affinity Factor Model for forecasting city development and dispersion," MPRA Paper 41310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41310

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rolf Bergs, 2002. "EU Regional and Cohesion Policy and Economic Integration of the Accession Countries," Urban/Regional 0204002, EconWPA.
    2. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo, 2008. "Regional Growth and Convergence: Heterogenous reaction versus interaction in spatial econometric approaches," Working Papers hal-00463274, HAL.
    3. Bourdin, Sebastien, 2010. "Repenser le futur de la politique de cohésion européenne pour les pays d’europe centrale et orientale : la prise en compte de l’espace géographique comme piste de recherche
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    4. Catherine Baumont & Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo, 2006. "Clubs de convergence et effets de débordements géographiques : une analyse spatiale sur données régionales européennes, 1980-1995," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 111-134.
    5. Cem Ertur & Julie Le Gallo & Catherine Baumont, 2006. "The European Regional Convergence Process, 1980-1995: Do Spatial Regimes and Spatial Dependence Matter?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-34, January.
    6. BAUMONT, Catherine, 1998. "Economie géographique et intégration régionale : Quels enseignements pour les Pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale ?," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 1998-11, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
    7. Sandy DALL'ERBA & Julie LE GALLO, 2005. "Dynamique Du Processus De Convergence Régionale En Europe," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 21, pages 119-139.
    8. Kurt Geppert & Andreas Stephan, 2008. "Regional disparities in the European Union: Convergence and agglomeration," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 193-217, June.
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    17. A Getis, 1991. "Spatial Interaction and Spatial Autocorrelation: A Cross-Product Approach," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 23(9), pages 1269-1277, September.
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    More about this item


    Town planning; city; city development; real estate; urban;

    JEL classification:

    • R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • P25 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns


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