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A Macroeconomic Simulation Model for Uzbekistan: Technical Guide to Macroeconomic Applications

Author

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  • Lord, Montague

Abstract

The study provide an analysis of the macroeconomic issues surrounding the reforms needed to meet the country’s growth target, as well as to identify existing policy and structural constraints and macroeconomic policy reforms measures that would help to remove those constraints. The indicative forecasts have been generating by two types of macroeconomic models. The first is a Revised Minimum Standard Model - eXtended (RMSM-X) that provides a simple spreadsheet-based tool for feasibility and sustainability analysis of the economy of Uzbekistan. The second provides is an econometric model of the macro economy for making rational and consistent predictions about Uzbekistan’s overall economic activity, the standard components of the balance of payments, the expenditure concepts of the national accounts, and the financial sector balances. The model applies a conventional framework to the economic system and, as a policy-oriented system it incorporates key parameters for policy formulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lord, Montague, 2005. "A Macroeconomic Simulation Model for Uzbekistan: Technical Guide to Macroeconomic Applications," MPRA Paper 41161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41161
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41161/1/MPRA_paper_41161.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uzbekistan; macroeconometric model; RMSM-X; econometric time series model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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