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Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026

Author

Listed:
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Kelley, Brian W.
  • Molina, Angel L., Jr.

Abstract

Long-term prospects for the El Paso - Ciudad Juárez borderplex economy call for steady growth. On the north side of the border, the population of El Paso is projected to reach 965 thousand by 2026, the last year of the forecast period. Real gross metropolitan product, the broadest measure of local economic activity, is expected to increase by more than 85 percent over the course of the next two decades to more than $31.5 billion (1996 dollars). Better job market conditions combine with income growth to push total retail sales above $20.7 billion by the end of the simulation period. Given this projected state of affairs, the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Model forecasts housing starts to average more than 5 thousand units per year through 2026. Substantially higher single-family home prices result under these circumstances. Demographic expansion and business growth jointly lead to greater demand for water in El Paso. As shown in Table 1, total consumption will approximate 45.8 billion gallons per year by the end of the forecast period.

Suggested Citation

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W. & Molina, Angel L., Jr., 2007. "Borderplex Long-Term Economic Trends to 2026," MPRA Paper 30522, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Mar 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30522
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30522/1/MPRA_paper_30522.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Border Economies; Econometric Forecasting Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics

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