An incomplete ignorance state in repeated-play decision making: A note on Bayesian decision-theoretical framework
There has been much reported on decisions from experience, also referred to as decisions in a complete ignorance fashion. This note lays out a Bayesian decision-theoretical framework that provides a computable account for decisions from experience. To make the framework more tractable, this note sets up and examines decisions in a incomplete ignorance fashion. The current discussion asserts that well-known behavioural effects, such as the hot stove effect, and the Bayesian framework may lead to different predictions.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2010|
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- Takemi Fujikawa, 2009. "On the relative importance of the hot stove effect and the tendency to rely on small samples," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(5), pages 429-435, August.
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