IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Construction industry forecasting model


  • Skribans, Valerijs


In economic literature are shown different methods and instruments of forecasting of separated factors. The most exactly from them take into account economic relations in investigation object. The paper presents the results of research conducted on forecasting in the construction industry. Development of a model for the construction industry is a complicated task. The paper offers a model for forecasting production volumes of the construction industry in Latvian conditions. The construction brunch consists of the extraction, treat (building material), builders and construction customer models. Component parts of the models reflect main factors of production (entrepreneural activity): natural factor (availability of resources), fixed capital (availability of production means), labor factor, working capital (availability of money resources), enterprising factor (entrepreneural spirit and availability of information). The main idea of the paper is that the suggested economic (econometric) model can produce a more accurately forecast than any other statistical, mathematical, and analytical forecasting approaches. The key of the model is theoretical dynamic simulation used for a real-life economic situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Skribans, Valerijs, 2002. "Construction industry forecasting model," MPRA Paper 16365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16365

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Skribans, Valerijs, 2003. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares attīstības prognoze
      [Latvian construction brunch development forecast]
      ," MPRA Paper 26072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Construction industry forecasting system dynamic model," MPRA Paper 27323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Būvniecības nozares prognozēšanas modelis
      [Construction branch forecasting model]
      ," MPRA Paper 20393, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    4. Skribans, V. & Počs, R., 2008. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares attīstības prognozēšanas modelis
      [Latvian construction branch development forecasting model]
      ," MPRA Paper 16355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Skribans, Valerijs, 2010. "Модель Жилищного Строительства В Постсоциалистических Странах На Примере Латвии
      [Housing model in the post socialistic countries on the example of Latvia]
      ," MPRA Paper 22229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Latvijas būvniecības nozares uzņēmumu finansiālās stabilitātes novērtēšana
      [Estimation of the financial stability of the Latvian building industry enterprises]
      ," MPRA Paper 27095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Skribans, Valerijs, 2009. "Latvijas būvniecības industrijas resursu problēmas vienotā Eiropā
      [Latvian building industry resources problems in European Union]
      ," MPRA Paper 20392, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    development; business; construction economy; dynamic simulation; econometric model; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.