IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/13754.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Past success and present overconfidence

Author

Listed:
  • Novarese, Marco

Abstract

According to a wide literature persons are not able to evaluate their own skills and knowledge, but the discussion on the nature, extension and determinants of this phenomenon is still open. This paper aims at proposing new empirical evidence on overconfidence and its determinants, trying to find out the possible effect of past performance on present optimism. I test my students' calibration and confidence in predicting their future results, comparing their expectations and real grades. My analysis allows showing the existence of overconfidence, its reduction in two following tests, and its non linear relation with students' capacities. Besides, I focus my attention on the effect of the grade my students got at the end of high school. This is used a proxy of their past experience and habit to get good or bad grades. Past success determined overconfidence. This idea is connected to the literature on heuristics and rule based perception.

Suggested Citation

  • Novarese, Marco, 2009. "Past success and present overconfidence," MPRA Paper 13754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13754/1/MPRA_paper_13754.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    overconfidence; expectations; learning; inertia; rule based behavior; economic education;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.