Matriz origen–destino y modelos predictivos de la movilidad urbana en Zaragoza: reparto modal, capacidad y resiliencia del transporte público[Origin - Destination Matrix and Predictive Models of Urban Mobility in Zaragoza: Modal Split, Capacity and Resilience of Public Transport]

This paper combines two complementary tools for urban mobility planning in Zaragoza. First, we estimate an origin–destination matrix of the trips made in the city during the week of 20–26 May 2024. The destinations of bus and tram trips are inferred from anonymised smart card validation records using the trip-chaining method. These flows are anchored to total mobility observed in mobile phone data, and the remaining modes are disaggregated in a cascade. Most trips are made on foot (49.7%) or by car (29.1%); public transport accounts for 15.5% (11.5% bus and 4.0% tram), and bicycles and personal mobility vehicles for 5.7%. Second, we build an Explore and Preferential Return (EPR) mobility model, calibrated with bike-sharing (Bizi), bus and tram data, which allows the system to be simulated under perturbations. Measured by relative travel time, the Bizi network ceases to be efficient at around 11 users per bicycle in 2025 and 10 in 2026, which, given the expanded fleet, more than doubles the number of users the system can serve. The bus and tram network shows a high degree of redundancy: the efficiency-loss threshold is only reached when 13 lines or 7% of stops are attacked.