La dinámica del precio del USDT en Bolivia ante episodios de incertidumbre interna, 2023–2026[USDT Price Dynamics in Bolivia amid Episodes of Domestic Uncertainty, 2023–2026]

By 2023, Bolivia’s foreign exchange market had already undergone several years of declining foreign currency availability, amid falling export revenues and a sustained reduction in international reserves. From that year onward, access to U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate became increasingly constrained, the parallel foreign exchange market became firmly established, and the USDT exchange rate gained importance as a reference for the value of the dollar. At the same time, the country experienced heightened domestic uncertainty, marked by social conflict, political tensions, and institutional change. Yet episodes of similar, and even greater, conflict intensity were associated with markedly different movements in the USDT exchange rate. This heterogeneity motivated an examination of whether the effects of exchange-rate uncertainty and social conflict on daily USDT returns changed between July 2023 and June 2026. The analysis used daily data on the USDT exchange rate, an exchange-rate uncertainty index, and a social conflict indicator. Their evolution was assessed using two econometric approaches, a TVP-SV model and an eGARCH model estimated over rolling windows. The results showed that, initially, higher levels of social conflict were associated with stronger upward pressure on the USDT exchange rate. From June 2025 onward, this relationship weakened and subsequently reversed, amid growing expectations of a change in government and potential changes in the exchange-rate environment. As a result, domestic uncertainty no longer translated into increases in the USDT exchange rate as it had earlier in the sample.