Эндогенная Природа Экономического Цикла: Операциональная Замкнутость, Рекурсивная Организация И Форвард-Модель Цикла Жюгляра[Endogenous Nature of the Economic Cycle: Operational closure, recursive organization, and a forward model of the Juglar cycle]

This paper argues that the medium-term Juglar business cycle is an intrinsic property of an operationally closed economic system rather than a response to external shocks. The oscillation is treated as an emergent property of a network of economic actions rather than an aggregate of individual agents: this distinguishes the approach from agent-based modeling and brings it close to the rule-based evolutionary ontology of micro–meso–macro. It is shown that, through positive and negative feedback, the recursive organization of economic processes necessarily generates endogenous oscillations typical of complex nonlinear systems. During a crisis the structural disproportions that accumulated in the upswing are eliminated. The paper examines the competitive self-regulation mechanism in its pure form, as a necessary precondition for understanding how the economy functions under real-world conditions of monopolization, financialization, and so on. The cycle is shown to move along a trajectory between two turning points — “producers are unwilling to produce more” and “consumers are unwilling to consume less.” The gradual upswing and the sharp crash are explained structurally: breaking an economic link requires only one party’s decision, whereas restoring it demands coordination among all parties. A forward model is presented that reproduces this dynamics without any external driver, and two crisis circuits are identified — commodity and financial. The paper concludes that anti-crisis policy based on supporting aggregate demand is ineffective: the crisis is merely postponed, while structural distortions persist, accumulate, and eventually lead to a deeper crisis.