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Quantifying data revisions using real-time data in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Griffin-Ellis, Ayrton
  • Horn, Aidan J.
  • Steenkamp, Daan

Abstract

Non-random revisions in macroeconomic statistics has important implications for forecasting and risk management and well as policy making. This policy paper evaluates the magnitude and historical dynamics of South African macroeconomic data revisions using a detailed true real-time dataset. We show that there is a lot of uncertainty around macroeconomic data in South Africa. In the case of GDP, estimates have tended to be revised upwards, by about 0.4 percentage point, on average. Investment, on the other hand, experienced larger revisions that GDP, with revisions tending to be negative. We show that the Reserve Bank's business cycle indicators have experienced the largest revisions of the series considered, raising concerns over their usefulness for nowcasting economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Griffin-Ellis, Ayrton & Horn, Aidan J. & Steenkamp, Daan, 2025. "Quantifying data revisions using real-time data in South Africa," MPRA Paper 127825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127825
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/128138/1/MPRA_paper_127825.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erasmus, Ruan & Steenkamp, Daan, 2022. "South Africa’s yield curve conundrum," MPRA Paper 115398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Neilon, Gabriella & Guest, Oliver & Steenkamp, Daan, 2025. "The market impact of inflation surprises in South Africa," MPRA Paper 127318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fourie, Jurgens & Steenkamp, Daan, 2025. "Forecasting economic downturns in South Africa using leading indicators and machine learning," MPRA Paper 124709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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