Sınırda Karbon Düzenlemesi Mekanizmasının Türkiye’nin AB İhracatına Olası Etkileri[Possible Effects Of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Türkiye’s EU Export]

In this study, the possible effects of EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Turkey's EU exports were examined. Using the data derived by the OECD, carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry sectors were analyzed in comparison with the carbon emission levels of the sectors of EU countries and exporting (competitor) countries to the EU. When the production carbon emission factor and the carbon emission intensity indicators of exports are evaluated together, it is seen that the CBAM application poses potential risks and opportunities on our manufacturing industry exports to the EU. Considering the current framework of CBAM application, it is observed that the manufacturing of other non-metallic mineral products, including cement production, is the main sector that will be negatively affected by the application. The Basic Metal sector, which includes iron, steel and aluminum production, and the chemicals and chemical products manufacturing sectors, which include fertilizer production, are positively affected by the CBAM application with relatively low carbon emission levels. Therefore, it can be said that the current framework of CBAM implementation contains more opportunities than risks for Turkey in terms of increasing its exports. Under the assumption that the application will spread to other sectors in the long term, the landscape is changing and risks are gaining weight. In such a case, 65 percent of our exports to the EU may be negatively affected and the Textile and Motor Vehicle sectors stand out as major exporting sectors that will be negatively affected by CBAM