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Evrointegracije I Makroekonomska Pozicija Zemalja Zapadnog Balkana
[European Integrations And Macroeconomic Position Of The Western Balkan Countries]

Author

Listed:
  • Erić, Ognjen
  • Popović, Goran
  • Stanković, Dragan

Abstract

Zemlje Zapadnog Balkana (ZB) prostiru se na važnom geostrategijskom prostoru. Iz toga proističe njihova ekonomska, resursna i prometna pozicija, važna za Evropu i Evroazijski region. Jedna od značajnih karakteristika zemalja ZB je da se nalaze u nekoj predpristupnoj fazi, ili su već postale članice Evropske unije (EU). Unija kao najsloženija i jedna od najvećih svjetskih integracija ima strategijski interes za realizaciju „južnih proširenja“. Istovremeno, i zemlje ZB iskazuju veliki interes za evrointegracijama. Te, slabije razvijene zemlje u njima vide ekonomsku, socijalnu i širu društvenu perspektivu. U kontekstu uslova koje zemlje ZB moraju ostvariti u toku i nakon prijema, primarni uslov je dostignuti nivo ekonomskog razvoja. Za ocjenu ekonomskog položaja izvršena je komparacija osnovnih makroekonomskih pokazatelja i agregata. Utvrđeno je da EU i Evrozona imaju ujednačen dugoročni rast i stabilnu industrijsku proizvodnju, inflaciju, potrošnju i razmjenu sa inostranstvom dok većina pokazatelja za zemlje ZB oscilira. Dugoročni trend rasta pokazuje blago pogoršanje, a nisu rijetke ni negativne stope. Nezaposlenost bilježi blagi rast, spoljnotrgovinska razmjena je negativna a „gap“ između bruto investicija i štednje je netipičan za razvijene ekonomije. Spoljni i javni dug su visoki, ali ipak nešto niži nego u EU. Dugoročni trend inflacije opada i to je jedini povoljan pokazatelj, iza koga se krije potpuno otvaranje tržišta zemalja ZB koje su pod pritiskom ponude inostranih roba i usluga. Komparacija ekonomskog blagostanja zemalja EU i ZB pokazuje da buduće članice EU mogu pronaći rezerve za brži ekonomski rast. U tome im pomaže i EU kroz značajnu finansijsku pomoć preko tzv. predpristupnih fondova.

Suggested Citation

  • Erić, Ognjen & Popović, Goran & Stanković, Dragan, 2017. "Evrointegracije I Makroekonomska Pozicija Zemalja Zapadnog Balkana [European Integrations And Macroeconomic Position Of The Western Balkan Countries]," MPRA Paper 103198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103198
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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