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Technological diffusion and cyclical growth

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  • Luciano Fanti

Abstract

The models of technology diffusion originally proposed by Metcalfe (1981), Batten (1987) and Amable (1992) are modified so as to allows for price expectations of adopters and suppliers of an innovation. We show many interesting and somewhat unexpected results, which were not noticed in the preceding models: i) productive technologies with higher returns or small fixed costs, ii) large market dimension (e.g. as a consequence of economic growth), iii) high speed of adoption, and iv) "cautious" investors in production of innovation, tend to prevent a balanced development of an innovation. Moreover 1) a co-existence of multiple equilibria, depending on initial conditions of new technology diffusion, 2) cyclical evolution of the new technique as a rule rather than an exception, are shown. Finally, some implications for policy interventions as well as firmsù marketing policies emerge.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano Fanti, 2003. "Technological diffusion and cyclical growth," Discussion Papers 2003/20, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2003/20
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    File URL: http://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2003-20.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Guerrazzi, 2005. "Notes on Continuous Dynamic Models: the Benhabib-Farmer Condition for Indeterminacy," Discussion Papers 2005/54, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Maurizio Lisciandra, 2007. "The Role of Reciprocating Behaviour in Contract Choice," Discussion Papers 2007/65, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    technological diffusion; Hopf bifurcation; cyclical growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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