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The Contemporaneous Correlation of Structural Shocks and Inflation— Output Variability in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Nasir

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Wasim Shahid Malik

    (Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.)

Abstract

Monetary policy has changed in a number of ways during the last two decades . Along with the other characteristics, modern monetary policy is forward-looking, and the central banks respond contemporaneously to structural shocks that are expected to make inflation deviate from the future targets. This study aims at investigating this aspect of the monetary policy for Pakistan. Using a modified version of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) developed by Enders and Hurn (2007), we have found a weak response of policy to supply-side shocks as the correlation coefficient between the demand and supply shocks is only 0.041. Moreover, the results show that the demand shocks have no significant contribution to output variability. On the other hand, both the demand and supply shocks, along with the foreign supply shocks, significantly contribute to inflation variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Nasir & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2011. "The Contemporaneous Correlation of Structural Shocks and Inflation— Output Variability in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2011:70, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2011:70
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    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-70.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Rehana Siddiqui & Hafiz Hanzla Jalil & Muhammad Nasir & Wasim Shahid Malik & Mahmood Khalid, 2008. "The Cost of Unserved Energy: Evidence from Selected Industrial Cities of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 227-246.
    2. Inayat Ullah Mangla, 2011. "Reconstructing the Performance of Pakistan’s Political Economy: Another Paradigm," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 30-70, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Contemporaneous Correlation; Pakistan; Structural Shocks; Vector Autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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