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The IGARCH e®ect: Consequences on volatility forecasting and option trading


  • Stefano HERZEL
  • Catalin STARICA
  • Thomas NORD


This paper studies the integrated Garch (IGARCH) e®ect, a phenomenon often encountered when estimating conditional auto-regressive models on ¯nancial time series. The analysis of twelve indexes of major ¯nancial markets provides empirical evidence of its well-spread presence especially in periods of market turbulence. We examine its impact on volatility forecasting and on trading and hedging options. We show that a strong IGARCH e®ect may have relevant consequences on trading and on risk management.

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  • Stefano HERZEL & Catalin STARICA & Thomas NORD, 2007. "The IGARCH e®ect: Consequences on volatility forecasting and option trading," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 34/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
  • Handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:34/2007

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    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Mirella Damiani, 2010. "Labour regulation, corporate governance and varieties of capitalism," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 76/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    2. Damiani, Mirella & Pompei, Fabrizio & Ricci, Andrea, 2011. "Temporary job protection and productivity growth in EU economies," MPRA Paper 29698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francesco Venturini, 2011. "Product variety, product quality, and evidence of Schumpeterian endogenous growth: a note," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 93/2011, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.

    More about this item


    stock returns; volatility forecasting; GARCH(1; 1); IGARCH effect; option hedging;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


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