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The IGARCH e®ect: Consequences on volatility forecasting and option trading

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano HERZEL
  • Catalin STARICA
  • Thomas NORD

Abstract

This paper studies the integrated Garch (IGARCH) e®ect, a phenomenon often encountered when estimating conditional auto-regressive models on ¯nancial time series. The analysis of twelve indexes of major ¯nancial markets provides empirical evidence of its well-spread presence especially in periods of market turbulence. We examine its impact on volatility forecasting and on trading and hedging options. We show that a strong IGARCH e®ect may have relevant consequences on trading and on risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano HERZEL & Catalin STARICA & Thomas NORD, 2007. "The IGARCH e®ect: Consequences on volatility forecasting and option trading," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 34/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
  • Handle: RePEc:pia:wpaper:34/2007
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    File URL: http://www.ec.unipg.it/DEFS/uploads/quaderno34web_001.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mirella Damiani, 2010. "Labour regulation, corporate governance and varieties of capitalism," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 76/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    2. Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi & Cătălin Stărică, 2012. "The cost of sustainability in optimal portfolio decisions," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3-4), pages 333-349, May.
    3. Damiani, Mirella & Pompei, Fabrizio & Ricci, Andrea, 2011. "Temporary job protection and productivity growth in EU economies," MPRA Paper 29698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Davide Castellani & Fabio Pieri, 2011. "Foreign Investments and Productivity Evidence from European Regions," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 83/2011, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    5. Silvia Micheli, 2010. "Learning Curve and Wind Power," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 81/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    6. Francesco Venturini, 2011. "Product variety, product quality, and evidence of Schumpeterian endogenous growth: a note," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 93/2011, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; volatility forecasting; GARCH(1; 1); IGARCH effect; option hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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