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Explaining The Determinants Of The Frequency Of Exchange Rate Interventions In Peru Using Count Models

  • Edgar Ventura

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

En este documento se analizan los determinantes de la frecuencia de intervenciÛn del Banco Central de Reserva en el mercado cambiario Peruano (compras y ventas). Se usan datos en frecuencia semanal para el periodo Enero 2001 hasta Diciembre 2010 usando la metodologia de modelos de conteo. Los resultados muestran que las desviaciones del logaritmo del tipo de cambio respecto de su tendencia de largo plazo, las intervenciones del periodo anterior (persistencia), el spread medido por el Embig, el spread entre las tasas de interes bancarias, y el spread entre las tasas de interes domestica y foranea son importantes determinantes.

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File URL: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/images/documentos/DDD340.pdf
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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its series Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers with number 2012-340.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00340
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Av. Universitaria 1801, San Miguel, Lima, Perú

Phone: (511) 626-2000 ext. 4950, 4951
Fax: (511) 626-2874
Web page: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/
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  1. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
  2. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," EPRU Working Paper Series 06-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004. "What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function," NBER Working Papers 10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2010. "Foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate volatility in Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1485-1491.
  6. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
  7. William H. Greene, 1994. "Accounting for Excess Zeros and Sample Selection in Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models," Working Papers 94-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  9. Hoshikawa, Takeshi, 2008. "The effect of intervention frequency on the foreign exchange market: The Japanese experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 547-559, June.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
  12. Luis Carranza & Juan M. Cayo & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Performance in Peru: A Firm Level Analysis," Faculty Working Papers 12/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  13. Martin Evans and David Lyons, 2001. "Time-Varying Liquidity in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers gueconwpa~01-01-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  14. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, "undated". "Impacto de las Intervenciones Cambiarias sobre el Nivel y la Volatilidad de la Tasa de Cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 561, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  15. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
  16. Arena, Marco & Tuesta, Pedro, 1999. "El objetivo de la intervención del Banco Central: ¿El nivel del tipo de cambio, la reducción de la volatividad cambiaria o ambos?: Un análisis de la experiencia peruana 1991 - 1998," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 5, pages -.
  17. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
  18. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
  19. J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 2, number long2, September.
  20. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
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