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Descomposición Histórica de la Inflación en Perú. Distinguiendo entre choques de demanda y choques de oferta

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  • Guillermo Lavanda
  • Gabriel Rodriguez

    () (Departamento de Economía- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

This paper analyzes and distinguishes the role and importance of the shocks related to the aggregate demand and aggregate supply on the behavior of the Peruvian inflation during the period 1997:1-2009:2. We use the methodology based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models using a long-run identification based on Blanchard and Quah (1989) which allows to obtain the historical decomposition of the annual inflation. Unlike Salas (2009), this paper uses a simpler model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and a larger sample. The results show that the behavior of inflation was largely explained for shocks related to the aggregate demand side in comparison with aggregate supply shocks. Furthermore, the results of the variance decomposition of the prediction error show that in the short and long term, the shocks of the demand side explain around 70% and 60% of the movements of the inflation. The results are robust to the inclusion of different variables in the set of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Lavanda & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2010. "Descomposición Histórica de la Inflación en Perú. Distinguiendo entre choques de demanda y choques de oferta," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2010-302, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00302
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    File URL: http://files.pucp.edu.pe/departamento/economia/DDD302.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    2. Powell, Andrew, 1991. "Commodity and Developing Country Terms of Trade: What Does the Long Run Show?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1485-1496, November.
    3. Osmel Manzano & Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Resource Curse or Debt Overhang?," NBER Working Papers 8390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2004. "Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview," NBER Working Papers 10602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Structural VAR; Long-Run Decomposition; Shocks of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply; Variance Decomposition; Historical Decomposition.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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