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Oil Price Uncertainty and Conflicts: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova)

  • Zahra Mohammadi Nikpour

    (DSEA, University of Padova)

  • Paola Valbonesi

    (Department of Economics and Management University of Padova and Higher School of Economics, National Research University (HSE-NRU), Moscow)

Abstract

We empirically study the relationship between oil price uncertainty and conflict incidence by using different Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models, also augmented with Heterogeneous (VHAR) components. We build two measures for oil price uncertainty and investigate the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) interstate conflict, civil conflict and terrorist attacks data. Our results show that uncertainty in the oil market increases the incidence of conflict in the region. By further decomposing the model for OPEC and non-OPEC members of the region, we find that while the OPEC members immunise themselves against conflict, oil price uncertainty affects the conflict in non-OPEC members positively.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Caporin & Zahra Mohammadi Nikpour & Paola Valbonesi, 2020. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Conflicts: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0250, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0250
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    Cited by:

    1. Dawud Ansari & Mariza Montes de Oca Leon & Helen Schlüter, 2021. "What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Natural Resources; Oil Prices; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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