IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/n4xuf_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Loose Derivation Chains and Scientific Stagnation in Criminology: Evidence from Self-Control Research

Author

Listed:
  • Brauer, Jonathan R.

Abstract

Criminological research often fails to achieve cumulative theoretical progress despite methodological sophistication. Paul Meehl’s concept of “logical derivation chains” provides a diagnostic framework for understanding this persistent problem, yet it remains largely absent from criminological practice. Using Gottfredson and Hirschi’s self-control theory as a detailed case study, including empirical analysis illustrating potential measurement incoherence, I argue that loose derivation chains are structural features of social scientific inquiry rather than correctable methodological problems. Through systematic analysis of sampling, measurement, and analytical choices, I reveal how auxiliary assumptions accumulate throughout the research process, creating compound derivation chain failures. The analysis identifies a “correlation paradox” where a correlation of r = -.31 (p < 2e-16), typically celebrated as impressive empirical support, corresponds to theoretical failure for 39% of individual cases. Contemporary statistical methods systematically privilege aggregate patterns over individual variation, rendering theoretically crucial anomalies invisible and creating research programs that appear progressive despite exhibiting degenerating characteristics. The analysis concludes with strategies for constraint-aware research, including individual-level prediction assessment and item-specific analysis that reveal theoretically important anomalies hidden by aggregate correlations, alongside institutional reforms that encourage genuine theoretical advancement over mere accumulation of supportive correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Brauer, Jonathan R., 2025. "Loose Derivation Chains and Scientific Stagnation in Criminology: Evidence from Self-Control Research," SocArXiv n4xuf_v1, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:n4xuf_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/n4xuf_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/683f6b7d8d18934e12a4db30/
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/n4xuf_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jones, Shayne, 2017. "Does choice of measure matter? Assessing the similarities and differences among self-control scales," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 78-85.
    2. Klaas Sijtsma & Jules L. Ellis & Denny Borsboom, 2024. "Recognize the Value of the Sum Score, Psychometrics’ Greatest Accomplishment," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 84-117, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernanda Inéz García-Vázquez & Angel Alberto Valdés-Cuervo & Lizeth Guadalupe Parra-Pérez, 2020. "The Effects of Forgiveness, Gratitude, and Self-Control on Reactive and Proactive Aggression in Bullying," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Fernanda Inéz García-Vázquez & Angel Alberto Valdés-Cuervo & Alma Georgina Navarro-Villarreal & Lizeth Guadalupe Parra-Pérez & Maria Fernanda Durón-Ramos & Daniela Fimbres-Celaya, 2021. "Psychometric Properties of the Multidimensional Temperance Scale in Adolescents," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Robert J. Mislevy, 2024. "Are Sum Scores a Great Accomplishment of Psychometrics or Intuitive Test Theory?," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1170-1174, December.
    4. Venables, Noah C. & Foell, Jens & Yancey, James R. & Beaver, Kevin M. & Iacono, William G. & Patrick, Christopher J., 2018. "Integrating criminological and mental health perspectives on low self-control: A multi-domain analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 2-10.
    5. Daniel McNeish, 2024. "Practical Implications of Sum Scores Being Psychometrics’ Greatest Accomplishment," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1148-1169, December.
    6. Jones, Shayne & Dinkins, Barbara & Sleep, Chelsea E. & Lynam, Donald R. & Miller, Joshua D., 2021. "The Add Health psychopathy scale: Assessing its construct validity," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Ward, Jeffrey T. & Ray, James V. & Fox, Kathleen A., 2018. "Exploring differences in self-control across sex, race, age, education, and language: Considering a bifactor MIMIC model," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-42.
    8. McNeeley, Susan & Meldrum, Ryan Charles & Hoskin, Anthony W., 2018. "Low self-control and the adoption of street code values among young adults," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 118-126.
    9. Klaas Sijtsma & Jules L. Ellis & Denny Borsboom, 2024. "Rejoinder to McNeish and Mislevy: What Does Psychological Measurement Require?," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1175-1185, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:n4xuf_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.