System Modelling of Hybrid Warfare in Grey Zones: An Analysis of Synergistic Effects Between Disruptive Networks and Financial Market Manipulation

This study proposes and quantifies a novel ‘grey zone hybrid warfare’ model: without formal declaration of war, the aggressor employs multiple, small-scale, deniable infiltration units to orchestrate infrastructure disruption incidents. Concurrently, it pre-positions short positions in global capital markets through sovereign credit default swaps (CDS), put options and similar instruments. amplifying narratives of ‘state failure’ to mislead markets into interpreting localised incidents as systemic collapse. This triggers sovereign rating downgrades, soaring spreads, and rapid market capitalisation erosion among leading enterprises, achieving ‘credit damage’. The paper proposes a ‘dual-layer coordination model’ (destruction layer/financial arbitrage layer) alongside three metrics: market overreaction coefficient β, self-financing ratio SFR (SFR>1 indicates industrialisability), and credit damage index. Results indicate this model circumvents traditional collective defence mechanisms. Consequently, defence priorities must shift from ‘preventing single-point breaches’ to ‘disrupting closed-loop systems’—namely, integrated early warning through intelligence-financial regulation-public clarification. Legally, ‘infrastructure sabotage + financial arbitrage’ should be elevated as a primary threat, with ‘credit firewalls’ suppressing β and SFR to prevent this model evolving into replicable, profit-driven attack supply chains.