IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/4s7ve_v1.html

Situation Report: Iran Conflict Digital Trace Data Analysis - Experimental

Author

Listed:
  • Rowe, Francisco

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Cabrera, Carmen

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Pietrostefani, Elisabetta
  • Nasuto, Andrea

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Beltran, Emiliano

Abstract

Conventional data sources to monitor population displacement in Iran following the outbreak of war on 28 February 2026 are limited due to existing sanctions, active hostilities, information controls and restricted humanitarian access. This situation report uses digital trace data as an alternative way to measure likely population dynamics in near real time during the reporting period. We leverage Cloudflare HTTPS request data as the main proxy for relative changes in population presence at the provincial level. Despite Internet blackouts, Cloudflare HTTPS request data can still provide informative signals of population activity because these blackouts rarely affect the entire network all at once. Small levels of external connectivity often persist through selected networks, partial routing or brief restoration periods, and fundamental services such as banking and medical services remain in operation. Our Cloudflare-based estimates capture relative shifts in population presence across provinces - not flows or absolute counts. Readers are strongly encouraged to consult the caveats before interpreting findings. We assessed and validated the patterns from our Cloudflare-based estimates against Farsi Wikipedia pageviews and Iran Strike Map event data. Our Cloudflare-based estimates display a clear geographic pattern and evolution of displacement as the conflict evolves. They indicate early displacement towards border provinces near Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, with later concentration in North-central and Eastern provinces — complementing IOM DTM cross-border data recording approximately 40,000 departures between 3 and 10 March, primarily to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan. A more complete analysis will follow in a subsequent report.

Suggested Citation

  • Rowe, Francisco & Cabrera, Carmen & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta & Nasuto, Andrea & Beltran, Emiliano, 2026. "Situation Report: Iran Conflict Digital Trace Data Analysis - Experimental," SocArXiv 4s7ve_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:4s7ve_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/4s7ve_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/69ca1bebd1258a78ce56e359/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/4s7ve_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiao Hui Tai & Shikhar Mehra & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2022. "Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 624-634, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao Hui Tai & Suraj R. Nair & Shikhar Mehra & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2025. "Satellite and Mobile Phone Data Reveal How Violence Affects Seasonal Migration in Afghanistan," Papers 2507.00279, arXiv.org.
    2. Oeindrila Dube & Joshua Blumenstock & Michael Callen, 2022. "Measuring Religion from Behavior: Climate Shocks and Religious Adherence in Afghanistan," NBER Working Papers 30694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Yuliya Kosyakova & Irena Kogan & Frank van Tubergen, 2025. "Multidimensional effects of conflict-induced violence on wartime migration decisions: evidence from Ukraine," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(6), pages 2088-2106, November.
    4. Vesco, Paola & Baliki, Ghassan & Brück, Tilman & Döring, Stefan & Eriksson, Anneli & Fjelde, Hanne & Guha-Sapir, Debarati & Hall, Jonathan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Leis, Maxine R. & Mueller, Hannes & , 2025. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. repec:osf:osfxxx:bm3yw_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jafarov, Jafar & Singh, Tejendra Pratap, 2024. "Harvesting Hunger: The Impact of Opium Ban on Food Security in Afghanistan," OSF Preprints bm3yw, Center for Open Science.
    7. repec:cam:camjip:2426 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rodgers Iradukunda & Francisco Rowe & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2025. "Estimating internal displacement in Ukraine from high-frequency GPS mobile phone data," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:4s7ve_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.