Population of Puerto Rico not displaced by Hurricanes (for now): It’s the economy

In September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico and caused 102 billion worth of damages, demolishing the electric grid and severely affecting essential daily services that continued as of the second half of 2019. Amidst the chaos, analysts were expected to provide stakeholders with impact estimates immediately following the hurricane. Unfortunately, this strong need for fast information after the disaster coincided with limited options for high-quality data sources to help stakeholders address challenges such as resource allocation and bond-pricing. Given the stabilization of data sources since the hurricanes, this paper examines historical demographic and economic data to give a long-term view of population change in Puerto Rico. First, we juxtapose population, employment, hurricanes and significant economic events to make the argument that the clearest driver of population decline in Puerto Rico is simply the economic health of the island (i.e. employment). Second, we focus on Pre- and Post-Hurricane Irma/Maria migration estimates to highlight the spike in outmigration following the hurricanes, as well as the, return immigration in the first half of the first half of 2018. Finally, we study historical net outmigration and employment trends to illustrate the short-lived outmigration impacts of hurricanes while also highlighting the long-term outmigration impacts of economic downturns. In short, we argue that the primary reason people are leaving Puerto Rico is the struggling economy and not hurricane-related destruction. The hurricanes simply exacerbated the economic-related outmigration trends and we believe that any serious plans for Puerto Rico’s restoration must include special attention to stimulate the economy.