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The pandemic threatens aged rural regions most

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  • Kashnitsky, Ilya

    (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

  • Aburto, José Manuel

Abstract

In the map NUTS-3 regions of Europe are colored according to the deviation from European pooled estimate of the proportion of population at risk of death due to COVID-19. We assume that 5/6 of the populations get infected and experience age-specific infection-fatality ratios (IFRs) modelled by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. We adjust IFRs by sex ratios of age-specific case-fatality ratios observed in Italy. Thus, we effectively introduce a summary measure of population age structures focused on the most vulnerable to the pandemic. Such an estimate for the total European population is 1%. Please note, this estimate is very rough and unlikely to hold true due to multiple biases of the data for the unfolding pandemic; in contrast, the population age structures data are of good quality. Thus, whatever the total infected population is and the absolute values of age-specific IFRs, the relative differences between regions would hold as long as the age-specific profile of IFRs stays proportional. This map reflects the unequal population age structures rather than the precise figures on COVID-19 fatality. It's a demographic perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Kashnitsky, Ilya & Aburto, José Manuel, 2020. "The pandemic threatens aged rural regions most," OSF Preprints abx7s, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:abx7s
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/abx7s
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    Cited by:

    1. Chei Bukari & Millicent Abigail Aning-Agyei & Christian Kyeremeh & Gloria Essilfie & Kofi Fosu Amuquandoh & Anthony Akwesi Owusu & Isaac Christopher Otoo & Kpanja Ibrahim Bukari, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on Household Food Insecurity and Poverty: Evidence from Ghana," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 991-1015, February.
    2. Md. Mazharul Islam & Majed Alharthi, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Quality of Life of Households in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-22, January.

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