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How Phillips Curve Dynamics Enhance Business Cycle Synchronization Analysis in Central and Eastern Europe (Nico Petz, Thomas Zörner)

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Petz

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Thomas Zörner

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB))

Abstract

This paper analyzes business cycle synchronization and the Phillips curve (PC) relationship in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies relative to the euro area. We find an overall increase in business cycle synchronicity, particularly among Euro adoption candidates, with notable heterogeneities during the early 2000s, the global financial crisis, and the euro crisis. Using a Kalman filter to extract business cycles and various measures of synchronicity, we show that CESEE EU countries align more closely with the euro area than non-EU countries. The unemployment-inflation relationship, analyzed with time-varying parameter (TVP) models, reveals a steepening of the Phillips curve post-COVID-19, with negative slope coefficients across all countries. We observe a growing convergence of the PC slope toward the euro area, especially in candidate countries. These results highlight the role of EU membership in fostering economic synchronization and emphasize the importance of considering time-varying dynamics in assessing economic convergence amid major shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Petz & Thomas Zörner, 2025. "How Phillips Curve Dynamics Enhance Business Cycle Synchronization Analysis in Central and Eastern Europe (Nico Petz, Thomas Zörner)," Working Papers 267, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:267
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Anil Ari & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia & Shruti Mishra, 2023. "Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?," IMF Working Papers 2023/100, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.
    3. Florian Huber & Martin Feldkircher, 2019. "Adaptive Shrinkage in Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 27-39, January.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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