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Lithuania’s trade dependencies

Author

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  • Przemyslaw Kowalski
  • Orlando Bates

Abstract

This paper examines Lithuania’s trade dependencies and their role in shaping the country’s exposure and resilience to episodes of economic coercion, with a focus on China’s trade restrictions imposed after Lithuania opened a representative office of Chinese Taipei in 2021. Using detailed bilateral trade data covering more than 5 000 products and 230 partners over 1997–2024, this paper documents the historical evolution of Lithuania’s trade structure and explores how concentration and diversification patterns influence vulnerability to external shocks. Descriptive and econometric analyses reveal that Lithuania’s relatively low dependence on China and its diversified export base mitigated the overall impact of Chinese trade coercion. Product-level evidence from the laser and peat industries highlights how lower trade concentration supports both robustness and recovery in the face of disruption. The findings underscore the importance of monitoring trade dependency and concentration as key indicators for economic resilience and de-risking policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Przemyslaw Kowalski & Orlando Bates, 2025. "Lithuania’s trade dependencies," OECD Trade Policy Papers 299, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:traaab:299-en
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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