Emissions unpacked: Trends and drivers before and after 2015

Global greenhouse gas emissions are 10% above their 2015 level and continue to rise. This paper compares emissions trends before and after 2015 and examines what drove the observed changes, drawing on emissions and energy data with global coverage over 1990-2024. It combines data-driven detection of emissions trend breaks with decomposition analysis to distinguish shifts in emissions driven by structural change from those associated with slower or faster economic growth. The results show that global emissions growth slowed from a pre-2015 trend of 1.8% per year to 0.7% per year after 2015. This slowdown is partly attributable to progress in energy systems, partly to slower economic growth. Progress was widespread but uneven. More than 90 countries, accounting for over half of global emissions, recorded improved emissions trends after 2015, while others experienced setbacks. In some of these countries, slower emissions growth primarily reflected weaker economic activity. Elsewhere, increased pressure on emissions from stronger economic growth was more than compensated by faster gains in energy efficiency, low-carbon energy and cleaner fossil fuel use. The results highlight that emissions reductions and economic growth have been compatible where several of these drivers improved together.