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The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures: A quantitative exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Rob Dellink

    (OECD)

  • Christine Arriola

    (OECD)

  • Ruben Bibas

    (OECD)

  • Elisa Lanzi

    (OECD)

  • Frank van Tongeren

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper analyses the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government responses on the environment. It uses large-scale modelling to investigate the impact of sectoral and regional shocks to the economy until 2040. These detailed economic impacts are linked to a range of environmental pressures, including greenhouse gas emissions, emissions of air pollutants, the use of raw materials and land use change. The short-term reductions in environmental pressures are significant: in 2020, energy-related greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions dropped by around 7%. Environmental pressures related to agriculture observed a smaller drop in 2020. The reduction in the use of non-metallic minerals, including construction materials, reached double digits. From 2021, emissions are projected to increase again, gradually getting closer to the pre-COVID baseline projection levels as growth rates recover fully. But there is a long-term – potentially permanent – downward impact on the levels of environmental pressures of 1‑3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Dellink & Christine Arriola & Ruben Bibas & Elisa Lanzi & Frank van Tongeren, 2021. "The long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures: A quantitative exploration," OECD Environment Working Papers 176, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:176-en
    DOI: 10.1787/123dfd4f-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Dellink, Rob & Atarody, Laura & Bibas, Ruben & Fouré, Jean & Lanzi, Elisa, 2022. "Updating the economic drivers in the SSPs," Conference papers 333504, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    air pollution; climate change; COVID-19; general equilibrium; land use change; materials use;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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