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Predicting The Evolution and Effects of The Asia Crisis from The OECD Perspective

Author

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  • Pete Richardson
  • Ignazio Visco
  • Claude Giorno

Abstract

Over the past two years, the key trading economies in SE Asia experienced major economic crises, involving financial turbulence, large capital outflows and currency depreciations. These, in turn, resulted in severe financial constraints and business failures and required major domestic adjustments and massive swings in their currentaccount balance of payments positions. The associated economic recessions had major effects on the economies in question and, because of constraints on their capacity to invest and import, a significant impact on the rest of the world, so that world trade and output growth slowed significantly and world commodity markets weakened substantially over the period.This paper looks at the wider macroeconomic consequences of the Asia crisis and their predictability from the perspective of the OECD countries. In doing so it examines some of the major aspects of the Asia crisis, its effects on the world situation and their predictability, assisted by the OECD’s ... Au cours des deux dernières années, les économies d’Asie du sud-est les plus importantes du point de vue des échanges commerciaux ont connu des crises économiques majeures qui se sont traduites par de fortes perturbation de leurs marchés financiers, des sorties de capitaux importantes et des dépréciations de taux de change. Celles-ci ont entraîné de sévères contraintes financières et des faillites d’entreprises et nécessité des ajustements substantiels de demande intérieure et des modifications massives des positions des balances des paiements courants dans ces pays. Les récessions économiques qui ont suivi ont eu des effets très importants sur les économies en question et, du fait des contraintes qui ont affecté leur capacité d’investir et d’importer, ont eu un impact significatif sur le reste du monde. Ainsi, le commerce et la production mondiale ont ralenti significativement tandis que les marchés internationaux des produits de base se sont affaiblis substantiellement au cours ...

Suggested Citation

  • Pete Richardson & Ignazio Visco & Claude Giorno, 2000. "Predicting The Evolution and Effects of The Asia Crisis from The OECD Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 236, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:236-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/422426214244
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    Keywords

    Asian crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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