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The impact of container shipping costs on import and consumer prices

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  • Elena Rusticelli
  • Catherine MacLeod

Abstract

Container shipping prices have experienced remarkable volatility, having risen substantially following Red Sea shipping disruptions, fallen with rising global supply and fluctuated in response to trade policy changes. We build on the existing literature by estimating the pass-through of container goods shipping costs into imported manufactured goods, excluding imported commodities, where the relationship with shipping cost pass-through is complicated by energy prices. We find that the impact of container shipping inflation on import price inflation and core inflation is smaller when commodity imports are excluded. Despite the smaller estimates of pass-through, container shipping cost shocks remain relevant for policy makers to consider, given continued very large price shocks. The results are robust to controls for supply shortages and shipping market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Rusticelli & Catherine MacLeod, 2025. "The impact of container shipping costs on import and consumer prices," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1838, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1838-en
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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