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The Future of Housing: Policy Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Cournède
  • Volker Ziemann
  • Frederica De Pace

Abstract

By combining fresh estimates of housing supply and prices with recent long-term projections for their fundamental drivers such as population, income and interest rates, this paper produces scenarios for residential investment and real house prices up to 2050. For half of the covered countries, projected increases in house prices are large enough to outpace real incomes, thereby further eroding housing affordability. The paper illustrates and quantifies how housing policies can make a difference. Removing mortgage interest relief eases price pressures and can contribute to more affordable housing. Likewise, streamlining land-use governance and easing rental control can help unlock housing supply, make housing markets more efficient and, ultimately, housing more affordable.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann & Frederica De Pace, 2020. "The Future of Housing: Policy Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1624, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1624-en
    DOI: 10.1787/0adf02cb-en
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/0adf02cb-en
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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